Donald Trump and Joe Biden are actually engaged in a critical poll about the presidential election – and they have been for months.
In the University of Michigan Consumer Survey Chest On Friday, 48% of consumers expected Biden to win and 47% expect Trump. This default link is in the data from July through September.
The University of Michigan Consumer Survey deals with political polling differently than most other surveys. Instead of asking consumers who they prefer or intend to vote for, they ask who they think will win an election.
Data from July to September suggests a hypothetical draw. This question has been asked since Carter ran against Ford in 1976, and in every presidential election, consumers have picked the right winner, with one exception: When Trump Clinton fought in 2016, two-thirds of consumers expected Clinton to win, “said Richard Curtin, chief economist of the survey .
The only other time the results were close was the 1980 election, when Reagan led Carter by just one percentage point.
It is worth noting that the poll now gives Trump a much greater odds of winning than he did in 2016.
Survey data showed overall consumer sentiment improved in early September. This improvement was a result of consumer expectations about the economy, driven by improved optimism about the economic outlook. Republicans, who have been more optimistic about the economy throughout Trump’s presidency, have given up some hope, likely due to concerns about Biden winning in November.
Consumers prefer Trump over the economy, 38 percent to 33 percent. 28% said a victory for Trump or Biden would make no difference to the economy. In terms of their personal finances, 33% said Trump was better and 28% said Biden was better. Forty percent said there was no difference in their family’s financial resources.
“Over the next several months, two factors could cause volatile shifts and a heavy toll in consumer confidence: how elections are defined and delays in getting vaccinations. While the end of the recession will depend on these non-economic factors, the hardships that consumers bear cannot. It is only compensated by renewing federal relief payments, ”Curtin said.